Why are yogurt prices holding steady?
Yogurt: $1.58 per 8 oz, U.S. average price in September 2026. 1-month −0.4%, 3-month −0.6%, 1-year +2.9%. 5-year range $1.22 to $1.70, average $1.51.
Price check: Near its usual level. +4.2% versus its 5-year average, +2.9% versus a year ago.
The short answer
- Retail yogurt prices stand at $1.58 per 8 oz in September 2026 as sustained consumer demand for protein-dense varieties and revised federal milk pricing formulas keep prices elevated above early 2025 lows. [1] [2] [3]
- The price remains below the September 2024 record high of $1.70 due to lower feed costs and recovering farm milk supplies following the initial disruptions of the dairy cattle avian flu outbreak. [4] [5]
What's driving the price
Political, regulatory and trade factors
- Federal Milk Marketing Order formula overhaul (Jun 2025 to Sep 2026), USDA Agricultural Marketing Service: Under Final Rule 90 FR 6600 published on January 17, 2025, the USDA overhauled milk component pricing formulas and increased processor make allowances starting in mid-2025, raising minimum regulated Class II skim milk and component values that yogurt manufacturers pay. [pushed prices up] [1] [8]
Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy
- Avian flu emergence and tightening milk yields (Sep 2023 to Sep 2024): After the USDA, FDA, and CDC confirmed H5N1 avian influenza in U.S. dairy cattle on March 25, 2024, affected herds suffered milk production losses of approximately 900 kg per cow, tightening supplies and pushing forecasted all-milk prices to $23.05 per hundredweight by late 2024. [pushed prices up] [4] [5] [6]
- Feed cost relief and farm milk production recovery (Sep 2024 to Jan 2025): Significant year-over-year declines in corn, alfalfa hay, and soybean meal prices lowered dairy operational costs, allowing dairy margins to recover and wholesale milk prices to soften heading into early 2025. [pushed prices down] [4]
- Class II milk price fluctuations and ingredient inflation (Jan 2025 to Sep 2026): Farm milk prices experienced volatility between $18.50 and $24.20 per hundredweight, with Class II milk rebounding to $17.60 per hundredweight by September 2026 alongside rising costs for sugar and fruit preparations. [pushed prices up] [2] [7] [8]
Retail, brand and seasonal factors
- Grocery promotional discounting and volume recovery (Sep 2024 to Jan 2025): Facing consumer pushback against peak dairy prices, retail supermarket chains expanded promotional feature activity and reduced retail markups to regain unit volumes, dropping the 8 oz average price by 12.4%. [pushed prices down] [7]
- Category premiumization and high-protein Greek demand (Jan 2025 to Sep 2026): Strong consumer migration toward strained Greek and functional probiotic yogurts, which require significantly higher volumes of raw milk per ounce produced, sustained higher baseline retail prices. [pushed prices up] [2] [3] [7]
Supply chain right now
- Raw materials & farming (stable): Total milk output is projected by the USDA to expand modestly as feed costs remain subdued and dairy herd bird flu cases decelerate to isolated detections. [4] [9] [10]
- Processing & manufacturing (moderate): Manufacturers face persistent cost pressures from updated federal milk component formulas, labor expenses, and rising sweetener and fruit preparation costs. [1] [2] [11]
- Logistics & freight (moderate): Temperature-controlled distribution networks face continuous cost hurdles from driver wages and refrigerated fleet maintenance expenses. [11]
- Retail & distribution (stable): Grocery retailers maintain steady shelf positioning and routine promotional cycles as overall food-at-home dairy inflation settles into historical ranges. [12] [13]
Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.
Yogurt prices, last 12 months
| Month | Price per 8 oz |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | $1.58 |
| August 2026 | $1.58 |
| July 2026 | $1.55 |
| June 2026 | $1.59 |
| May 2026 | $1.54 |
| April 2026 | $1.51 |
| March 2026 | $1.56 |
| February 2026 | $1.50 |
| January 2026 | $1.56 |
| December 2025 | $1.52 |
| November 2025 | $1.56 |
| September 2025 | $1.53 |
| August 2025 | $1.50 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000FJ4101.
Sources
- Changes to Milk Pricing Formulas Under Federal Milk Marketing Orders Will Affect Farm Milk Prices | Choices Magazine Online (choicesmagazine.org)
- Yogurt Price Trend 2025 to 2026: Market Analysis, Supply Demand Insights & Forecast (openpr.com)
- fortunebusinessinsights.com (fortunebusinessinsights.com)
- USDA Revises Milk Production Forecasts for 2024-2025: Higher Prices Amid Lower Output (thebullvine.com)
- avma.org (avma.org)
- The impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus infection on dairy cows - PMC (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
- US Yogurt Market Trends & Industry Forecast 2031 (mordorintelligence.com)
- ams.usda.gov (ams.usda.gov)
- The Farmer's Exchange Online USDA Trims Milk Production Estimates for 2026, 2027 (farmers-exchange.net)
- Washington state confirms first H5N1 avian flu detection in dairy cattle (cidrap.umn.edu)
- marketdataforecast.com (marketdataforecast.com)
- mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov (mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov)
- Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service (ers.usda.gov)