Why are rice prices up 5% from a year ago?

The short answer

• The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported a 22 percent year-over-year decline in long-grain planted acreage in 2026, dropping Arkansas plantings below one million acres and pulling total U.S. rice production down to a 39-year low of 153.3 million hundredweight, which led the USDA Economic Research Service to lift projected long-grain season-average farm prices by 30 percent to $14.00 per hundredweight. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
• The Indian government enacted an export ban on non-basmati white rice and imposed a 20 percent export duty on parboiled shipments in July 2023 to manage domestic consumer food inflation, taking 7 to 8 million metric tons out of international circulation and pushing global benchmark prices up by as much as 22 percent. [7] [8] [9] [10]
• According to the American Farm Bureau Federation and the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, rice production expenses rose to an estimated $1,411 per acre for the 2026 season due to sharp spikes in urea fertilizer, fuel, and equipment financing rates, eroding grower margins and forcing producers to leave fields fallow. [5] [6] [11]

What's driving the price

Political, regulatory and trade factors

• Non-Basmati Export Restrictions (Jul 2023 to Oct 2024), Government of India: The Indian government enacted an export ban on non-basmati white rice and imposed a 20 percent export duty on parboiled shipments in July 2023 to manage domestic consumer food inflation, taking 7 to 8 million metric tons out of international circulation and pushing global benchmark prices up by as much as 22 percent. [pushed prices up] [7] [8] [9] [10]

Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy

• Domestic Acreage and Supply Contraction (Mar 2026 to Sep 2026): The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported a 22 percent year-over-year decline in long-grain planted acreage in 2026, dropping Arkansas plantings below one million acres and pulling total U.S. rice production down to a 39-year low of 153.3 million hundredweight, which led the USDA Economic Research Service to lift projected long-grain season-average farm prices by 30 percent to $14.00 per hundredweight. [pushed prices up] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
• Escalating Farm Input and Irrigation Costs (Oct 2023 to Jun 2026): According to the American Farm Bureau Federation and the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, rice production expenses rose to an estimated $1,411 per acre for the 2026 season due to sharp spikes in urea fertilizer, fuel, and equipment financing rates, eroding grower margins and forcing producers to leave fields fallow. [pushed prices up] [5] [6] [11]
• Midsouth Flooding and Drought Damage (Apr 2025 to Dec 2025): University of Arkansas agronomy reports documented that torrential flooding across the Midsouth in April 2025 followed by late-summer drought produced brittle, overdry paddy rice, resulting in suboptimal milling yields that reduced the net volume of whole milled grains recovered from harvest. [pushed prices up] [12] [13] [14] [15]

Retail, brand and seasonal factors

• Processing Consolidation and Steady Retail Demand (May 2026 to Sep 2026): Steady household retail demand, which accounts for over 66 percent of domestic long-grain consumption, coincided with agricultural cooperative Riceland Foods idling nine drying and storage facilities across Arkansas and Missouri due to the diminished 2026 crop, cementing higher processing margins into consumer shelf prices. [pushed prices up] [5] [16]

Supply chain right now

• Raw materials & farming (critical): U.S. long-grain production is operating at multi-decade lows following a 22 percent cut in seeded area and steep per-acre input costs across the Arkansas Grand Prairie and Mississippi Delta. [3] [5] [16]
• Processing & manufacturing (moderate): Commercial mills face elevated per-unit overhead and lower whole-kernel recovery rates caused by weather-stressed raw grain, prompting major cooperatives to idle regional drying and storage capacity. [5] [13] [14]
• Retail & distribution (moderate): Supermarket retailers are passing elevated farm-gate acquisition costs and processor fees through to end consumers while steady staple food demand keeps prices elevated at record levels. [1] [16]

Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.

Rice prices, last 12 months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000701312.

Sources

1. ers.usda.gov (ers.usda.gov)
2. ers.usda.gov (ers.usda.gov)
3. Rice Outlook: April 2026 - Rice Farming (ricefarming.com)
4. ers.usda.gov (ers.usda.gov)
5. farmprogress.com (farmprogress.com)
6. Arkansas Rice Farmers Are Being Squeezed: Why 2026 Has Become Such a Difficult Year | Cotton Rohrscheib (cotton.buzz)
7. India’s recent export restrictions expected to reduce global rice trade in 2023 and 2024 | Economic Research Service (ers.usda.gov)
8. ifpri.org (ifpri.org)
9. usarice.com (usarice.com)
10. India rice ban will benefit U.S. rice exports, increase market volatility | CoBank (cobank.com)
11. m.farms.com (m.farms.com)
12. Rice Market Outlook 2026 (fryar-risk-center.uada.edu)
13. YEAREND: 2025 a year of highs and lows for Arkansas rice growers (uaex.uada.edu)
14. Arkansas rice harvest disappoints, raising concerns for 2027 (brownfieldagnews.com)
15. Arkansas Rice Update 8-22-25 (arkansascrops.uada.edu)
16. U.S. Rice Market Size, Share & Growth Report, 2026-2033 (grandviewresearch.com)

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