Why are stew beef prices 14% above their 5-year average?

The short answer

• Boneless stew beef fell to $8.53 per pound in September 2026 as emergency federal tariff quota relief on imported lean beef and seasonal post-summer demand shifts cooled prices from their June peak of $9.30. [1] [2] [3]
• Despite recent monthly declines, stew beef remains historically expensive because multi-year drought shrank the domestic cattle herd to a 75-year low, severely restricting the supply of slaughter-ready cattle. [4] [5]

What's driving the price

Political, regulatory and trade factors

• Temporary 90-day lean beef import quota expansion (Jun 2026 to Sep 2026), Office of the President: In August 2026, President Donald Trump announced a temporary 90-day trade action authorizing up to 300,000 metric tons of imported lean beef at reduced tariffs, prompting the USDA Economic Research Service to raise its annual beef import projection by 64,455 metric tons and putting downward pressure on wholesale lean beef trim and retail stew cuts. [pushed prices down] [2] [8]
• Feeder cattle border crossing restrictions (Feb 2024 to Nov 2025), U.S. Department of Agriculture: Strict import restrictions maintained by the USDA on live cattle crossings from Mexico throughout 2025 restricted feeder cattle availability in the Southwest, helping push feeder cattle prices to an average of $322 per hundredweight in 2025 compared to $252 in 2024 until the Douglas, Arizona port reopened in August 2026. [pushed prices up] [12] [13]

Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy

• Cattle herd contraction to 75-year inventory lows (Feb 2024 to Nov 2025): According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, prolonged drought across the Southern Plains shrank the total U.S. cattle herd to 86.2 million head and the beef cow herd to 27.6 million head by January 2026—the lowest levels since 1951—which curtailed slaughter volumes and drove boneless stew beef from $6.84 to $9.17 per pound. [pushed prices up] [4] [5]
• Commercial beef production falling to eleven-year lows (Feb 2026 to Jun 2026): USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates repeatedly reduced the 2026 domestic beef output projection to 24.8 billion pounds—a 4.6% drop from 2025 and the smallest annual volume since 2015—as commercial feedlot cattle inventories fell 3% to 13.8 million head, driving stew meat to a record high of $9.30 per pound. [pushed prices up] [6] [7]
• Dressed carcass weight increases and late-2025 import surges (Nov 2025 to Feb 2026): The USDA Economic Research Service reported that average fed cattle carcass weights jumped roughly 30 pounds over prior-year levels in late 2025, which, combined with a 16% year-over-year surge in lean processing beef imports, expanded wholesale poundage and temporarily lowered retail prices from $9.17 to $8.36. [pushed prices down] [9] [10] [11]

Retail, brand and seasonal factors

• Seasonal grocery demand pivot away from slow-cooking cuts (Jun 2026 to Sep 2026): Weekly retail tracking from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service showed supermarket feature advertising shifting toward grilling cuts such as steaks and ground beef over late summer, reducing wholesale buying interest and dealer margins on chuck and round cuts used for retail stewing. [pushed prices down] [3]

Supply chain right now

• Raw materials & farming (critical): Severe drought across more than 80% of cattle-producing regions and hay prices climbing $150 to $200 per ton have kept cow-calf margins deeply constrained while the breeding herd lingers at historic lows. [14]
• Processing & manufacturing (moderate): Meatpackers have faced tight fed-cattle slaughter receipts and unhedged cattle feeding margins running at losses of $200 to $250 per head, despite partial capacity restarts at processing facilities in Colorado and Texas. [14]
• Retail & distribution (moderate): Supermarkets have gradually lowered shelf prices for boneless stew beef to $8.53 per pound as wholesale cutout values retreated from summer highs, though grocers remain sensitive to high acquisition costs for whole chuck and round primals. [15]

Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.

Stew beef prices, last 12 months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000703432.

Sources

1. Cattle & Beef - Market Outlook | Economic Research Service (ers.usda.gov)
2. Trump’s Beef Import Plan Delivers Little Relief for Consumers as Ranchers Take a Hit (farmaction.us)
3. ams.usda.gov (ams.usda.gov)
4. facebook.com (facebook.com)
5. Smaller Cattle Herd Creates Market Volatility (fb.org)
6. esmis.nal.usda.gov (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
7. drovers.com (drovers.com)
8. farmprogress.com (farmprogress.com)
9. ers.usda.gov (ers.usda.gov)
10. ers.usda.gov (ers.usda.gov)
11. www-tx.ers.usda.gov (www-tx.ers.usda.gov)
12. usda.gov (usda.gov)
13. ers.usda.gov (ers.usda.gov)
14. U.S. Cattle Prices Face New Pressure From Drought, Beef Imports and Trade Policy (agrolatam.com)
15. ams.usda.gov (ams.usda.gov)

More in Groceries

• Why are bread prices holding steady?
• Why are whole wheat bread prices up 8% from a year ago?
• Why are flour prices holding steady?
• Why are rice prices up 5% from a year ago?
• Why are pasta prices up 14% from a year ago?
• Why are cookie prices near a 5-year high?