Why are pork chop prices near a 5-year low?
Pork chops: $4.22 per lb, U.S. average price in September 2026. 1-month −0.5%, 3-month −2.7%, 1-year −3.0%. 5-year range $4.02 to $4.45, average $4.24.
Price check: Near its usual level. −0.5% versus its 5-year average, −3.0% versus a year ago.
The short answer
- Retail pork chop prices sit at $4.22 per pound in September 2026 as abundant market hog supplies and low feed costs keep production near historical highs. [1] [2]
- While chop prices rebounded slightly from their November 2025 low of $4.10 due to shoppers substituting pork for record-high beef, they remain 3% below year-ago levels because of softer export demand and steady domestic slaughter. [2] [3] [4]
What's driving the price
Political, regulatory and trade factors
- Proposition 12 Market Segregation (Jan 2024 to Nov 2025), California Department of Food and Agriculture: After the U.S. Supreme Court upheld California Proposition 12 and full enforcement took effect in January 2024, non-compliant pork was redirected to other U.S. states, increasing conventional wholesale supply and pushing down retail pork prices outside California. [pushed prices down] [1] [3]
Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy
- Plunging Feed Costs and Heavier Carcass Weights (Oct 2023 to Nov 2025): Lower corn and soybean meal prices reversed steep 2023 producer losses of over $30 per head, encouraging farmers to feed hogs to heavier dressed weights and significantly expanding overall pork tonnage. [pushed prices down] [1] [2] [3] [5]
- Record Litter Productivity and Hog Inventory Expansion (Oct 2023 to Nov 2025): The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported record survival rates reaching 11.92 to 11.93 pigs saved per litter, expanding pig crops past 35 million head and keeping meatpacking supplies elevated. [pushed prices down] [1] [6]
- Slaughter Contraction and Beef Substitution Demand (Dec 2025 to Sep 2026): A modest 1.5% decrease in commercial hog harvest combined with consumers trading down from expensive beef lifted packer wholesale cutouts, pulling retail chop prices back up toward the five-year average. [pushed prices up] [3] [5] [7]
- Softer Export Volumes and Sluggish Demand (Jan 2026 to Sep 2026): The USDA Economic Research Service trimmed pork export forecasts due to stiffer global competition and softer international demand, leaving larger supplies on the domestic market and capping price gains relative to 2025. [pushed prices down] [4] [7]
Retail, brand and seasonal factors
- Retail Grocery Loss-Leading and Seasonal Slaughter Peaks (Sep 2024 to Nov 2025): Supermarkets heavily promoted pork loins as value-oriented alternatives to high beef prices, while annual seasonal slaughter peaks in October and November flooded cold storage and drove wholesale cutout values lower. [pushed prices down] [2] [3]
Supply chain right now
- Raw materials & farming (stable): Hog producers maintain steady margins after more than two consecutive years of profitability supported by low feed costs and high litter productivity. [2] [6]
- Processing & manufacturing (stable): Meat packers maintain consistent operational throughput, producing approximately 6.6 billion pounds of pork in the third quarter of 2026. [4]
- Retail & distribution (moderate): Supermarket meat departments continue to feature pork chops aggressively to drive store traffic amid consumer sensitivity to high food prices. [2] [3]
Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.
Pork chops prices, last 12 months
| Month | Price per lb |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | $4.22 |
| August 2026 | $4.24 |
| July 2026 | $4.24 |
| June 2026 | $4.34 |
| May 2026 | $4.39 |
| April 2026 | $4.33 |
| March 2026 | $4.18 |
| February 2026 | $4.19 |
| January 2026 | $4.15 |
| December 2025 | $4.30 |
| November 2025 | $4.10 |
| September 2025 | $4.35 |
| August 2025 | $4.30 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000FD3101.
Sources
- Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Puts Pressure on 2025 Prices (fb.org)
- feedstuffs.com (feedstuffs.com)
- Hog Producer Profits Surge in 2025 (traderphd.com)
- Hogs & Pork - Market Outlook | Economic Research Service (ers.usda.gov)
- nationalhogfarmer.com (nationalhogfarmer.com)
- esmis.nal.usda.gov (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
- Hog Prices Recover From 2024 Lows (midwestfarmreport.com)