Why are lemon prices holding steady?
Lemons: $2.13 per lb, U.S. average price in September 2026. 1-month +0.7%, 3-month +0.9%, 1-year +2.5%. 5-year range $1.88 to $2.26, average $2.07.
Price check: Near its usual level. +2.9% versus its 5-year average, +2.5% versus a year ago.
The short answer
- The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that utilized lemon production dropped 2 percent in California and plunged 36 percent in Arizona during the 2025-26 crop year, shrinking nationwide supplies and ending an extended period of grower losses. [1]
- California lemon output expanded by 5 percent in the 2024-25 season as heavy harvests in District 1 flooded packinghouses, driving wholesale prices to 30-year lows of $7 to $10 per carton and pulling retail prices down to a five-year trough of $1.88 per pound. [2] [3]
- In March 2025, Canada placed a 25 percent counter-tariff on U.S. citrus imports, depressing fresh lemon exports to California's largest foreign market and diverting substantial uncommitted supplies back onto the domestic grocery pipeline. [3] [4]
What's driving the price
Political, regulatory and trade factors
- Canadian retaliatory tariffs on citrus exports (Dec 2024 to Jun 2025), Department of Finance Canada: In March 2025, Canada placed a 25 percent counter-tariff on U.S. citrus imports, depressing fresh lemon exports to California's largest foreign market and diverting substantial uncommitted supplies back onto the domestic grocery pipeline. [pushed prices down] [3] [4]
Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy
- Domestic harvest contraction and regional yield declines (Jun 2025 to Sep 2026): The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that utilized lemon production dropped 2 percent in California and plunged 36 percent in Arizona during the 2025-26 crop year, shrinking nationwide supplies and ending an extended period of grower losses. [pushed prices up] [1]
- San Joaquin Valley harvest surge and packing glut (Dec 2024 to Jun 2025): California lemon output expanded by 5 percent in the 2024-25 season as heavy harvests in District 1 flooded packinghouses, driving wholesale prices to 30-year lows of $7 to $10 per carton and pulling retail prices down to a five-year trough of $1.88 per pound. [pushed prices down] [2] [3]
- Mediterranean crop failures and global trade diversion (Jun 2025 to Sep 2026): A 36 percent freeze loss in Turkey and a 12 percent crop decline in Spain forced European markets to outbid North America for Argentine and Chilean fresh lemons, tightening counter-seasonal import volumes that normally buffer late-summer U.S. grocery supplies. [pushed prices up] [5] [6]
- Escalating grove labor and disease mitigation expenses (Jun 2025 to Sep 2026): The Ventura County Department of Agriculture reported that rising agricultural wages and escalating compliance measures against Asian citrus psyllid and Huanglongbing disease outpaced orchard returns, compelling packinghouses to demand higher minimum FOB prices. [pushed prices up] [7]
Retail, brand and seasonal factors
- Summer domestic supply lull and offshore import reliance (May 2024 to Dec 2024): Domestic harvesting waned as Central Valley groves wrapped up picking, shifting wholesale supply lines to counter-seasonal maritime shipments from Mexico, Chile, and Argentina that carry ocean freight premiums. [pushed prices up] [8] [9]
- Peak winter harvest volume in California citrus districts (Jan 2024 to May 2024): Concurrent harvesting across Southern California coastal groves and the Central Valley saturated national supply channels, prompting supermarket grocers to cut consumer prices during the peak domestic citrus marketing window. [pushed prices down] [3] [10]
Supply chain right now
- Raw materials & farming (moderate): California and Arizona lemon orchards are managing smaller crop yields, rising field labor wages, and mandatory treatment protocols for Huanglongbing quarantines as the desert picking season begins. [1] [7]
- Processing & manufacturing (stable): Fresh packinghouses are maintaining normal packing schedules and routing standard juice-grade cull volumes into essential oil and citrus derivative processors. [3] [11]
- Logistics & freight (stable): Domestic refrigerated trucking capacity remains sufficient across western growing corridors while port drayage has normalized following late-summer import arrivals. [8]
- Retail & distribution (moderate): Supermarkets and foodservice distributors are maintaining firm shelf prices above $2.10 per pound to protect margins against elevated wholesale packinghouse contract rates. [3] [9]
Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.
Lemons prices, last 12 months
| Month | Price per lb |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | $2.13 |
| August 2026 | $2.11 |
| July 2026 | $2.13 |
| June 2026 | $2.11 |
| May 2026 | $2.09 |
| April 2026 | $2.03 |
| March 2026 | $2.00 |
| February 2026 | $1.96 |
| January 2026 | $1.97 |
| December 2025 | $1.98 |
| November 2025 | $2.02 |
| September 2025 | $2.08 |
| August 2025 | $2.08 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000711412.
Sources
- esmis.nal.usda.gov (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
- esmis.nal.usda.gov (esmis.nal.usda.gov)
- Lemon prices bounce back after hitting ‘lowest in 30 years’ during winter (stories.agronometrics.com)
- Terrain | California Citrus Farmers Squeezed in 2025 (terrainag.com)
- apps.fas.usda.gov (apps.fas.usda.gov)
- Argentine lemon exports capitalize on unprecedented 5% northern supply drop - FreshFruitPortal.com (freshfruitportal.com)
- County’s farm production hits $2.4 billion as growers face rising costs (toacorn.com)
- Imported lemon prices fall 40% at US ports while California fruit holds firm (cropli.io)
- thepacker.com (thepacker.com)
- Citrus Season – GreenTree Co-op Market (greentree.coop)
- wikifarmer.com (wikifarmer.com)