Why are lettuce prices down 5% from a year ago?
Iceberg lettuce: $1.64 per lb, U.S. average price in September 2026. 1-month +11.2%, 3-month −18.7%, 1-year −5.5%. 5-year range $1.38 to $2.01, average $1.63.
Price check: Near its usual level. +0.5% versus its 5-year average, −5.5% versus a year ago.
The short answer
- Retail iceberg lettuce rebounded to $1.64 per pound in September 2026 as consumer demand normalized following federal clearance of a major summer cyclospora outbreak. [1] [2] [3]
- Prices are also experiencing upward pressure from tightening late-season yields in California's Salinas Valley ahead of the annual autumn harvest transition to Arizona. [4] [5]
What's driving the price
Political, regulatory and trade factors
- Federal cyclospora investigation and import recall (Jun 2026 to Aug 2026), U.S. Food and Drug Administration: A joint investigation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention into an outbreak of 12,883 illnesses prompted the recall of imported Mexican iceberg lettuce on July 17, triggering fast-food pullbacks and category-wide consumer avoidance that forced California growers to abandon up to a third of ready crops in their fields. [pushed prices down] [2] [3] [6] [7] [8]
Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy
- Salinas Valley crop virus surge and weather damage (Jun 2025 to Nov 2025): A severe resurgence of Impatiens Necrotic Spot Virus vectored by thrips coincided with late-summer heatwaves, hail, and storms across the Salinas Valley, degrading crop yields, causing underweight heads, and driving retail prices from $1.38 to $1.99. [pushed prices up] [4] [9] [10]
- Desert harvest recovery and depressed consumer movement (Dec 2024 to Jun 2025): Winter harvests in Yuma yielded heavy volumes while the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service tracked cumulative 2025 iceberg shipments at 12% below five-year averages amid sluggish consumer demand, collapsing shipping point prices to $13 per carton and lowering retail prices to a five-year low of $1.38. [pushed prices down] [11]
- California atmospheric river flooding and planting delays (Jan 2024 to Apr 2024): Relentless atmospheric river storms across California flooded fields and disrupted planting schedules in the Salinas Valley, contributing to a 9% reduction in harvested California lettuce acreage reported by the USDA Economic Research Service and lifting retail prices to $1.75. [pushed prices up] [15] [16]
Retail, brand and seasonal factors
- Regional harvest transitions between Salinas and Yuma (Oct 2024 to Dec 2024, Apr 2026 to Jun 2026): The bi-annual geographic relocation of harvesting crews and equipment between California's Central Coast and the desert Southwest created recurrent supply gaps, which were amplified by desert heatwaves in late 2024 and spring 2026 that pushed retail prices up by over 20%. [pushed prices up] [4] [12] [13] [14]
- Category demand recovery and late-season supply tightening (Aug 2026 to Sep 2026): After the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared the summer outbreak resolved on September 11, consumer purchasing rebounded while major processors eliminated Mexican supply and Salinas Valley yields tightened ahead of the winter transition, lifting shipping prices to $24 to $26 per carton and terminal wholesale prices over $60 per carton. [pushed prices up] [2] [3] [17] [18] [19]
Supply chain right now
- Raw materials & farming (moderate): Salinas Valley fields are winding down with yields reduced by late-season insect virus pressure and heat, while newly planted fields in the Yuma desert establish ahead of November harvests. [4] [5]
- Processing & manufacturing (moderate): Processors are adhering to heightened pathogen testing protocols and preparing mobile facilities for relocation to the desert while permanently excluding Mexican iceberg suppliers. [2] [20]
- Logistics & freight (stable): Refrigerated transport availability remains adequate with balanced truck capacity as hauling operations begin staging for the seasonal transit from Northern California to Arizona. [4] [12]
- Retail & distribution (stable): Supermarket produce aisles have rebuilt full inventory and ad promotions following the official clearance of summer food safety alerts, restoring retail prices to $1.64. [2] [3] [21]
Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.
Iceberg lettuce prices, last 12 months
| Month | Price per lb |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | $1.64 |
| August 2026 | $1.47 |
| July 2026 | $1.75 |
| June 2026 | $2.01 |
| May 2026 | $1.96 |
| April 2026 | $1.63 |
| March 2026 | $1.72 |
| January 2026 | $1.70 |
| November 2025 | $1.99 |
| September 2025 | $1.73 |
| August 2025 | $1.67 |
| July 2025 | $1.58 |
| June 2025 | $1.38 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000712211.
Sources
- Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc. (facebook.com)
- Taylor Farms to cut Mexican lettuce supply after outbreak - FreshFruitPortal.com (freshfruitportal.com)
- Cyclospora and the cost of convenience | NC Health News (northcarolinahealthnews.org)
- The Lettuce Squeeze - Taylor Boys Produce (taylorboysproduce.com)
- theproducenews.com (theproducenews.com)
- Where the Cyclospora Count Stands on October 15. (foodpoisonjournal.com)
- Falling lettuce demand leaves U.S. Salinas fields unharvested (english.news.cn)
- Six and a Half Million Households Quit Buying Salad in a Single Month. Eighty-Two Percent Say They Will Come Back When This Is Contained. The Industry Cannot Message Its Way to Contained. (marlerblog.com)
- Commodity Notification - Vegetables - Weather & Yuma Transition | Ole Tyme Produce (oletyme.com)
- Lettuce virus showing signs of return in Salinas Valley - Salinas Valley Tribune | Gonzales, Soledad, Greenfield CA (salinasvalleytribune.com)
- Terrain | Lettuce Market Likely to Remain Soft in 2025 (terrainag.com)
- theproducenews.com (theproducenews.com)
- instagram.com (instagram.com)
- Post-Election market trends: Lettuce prices soar while oranges Cool Down (produceiq.com)
- hancockcollege.edu (hancockcollege.edu)
- ers.usda.gov (ers.usda.gov)
- ams.usda.gov (ams.usda.gov)
- Lettuce Prices Today: Price Chart and USDA Wholesale History (kadoa.com)
- ams.usda.gov (ams.usda.gov)
- FAO: Food Safety Begins Upstream. The Taylor Farms Cyclospora Outbreak Proves It. (marlerblog.com)
- ams.usda.gov (ams.usda.gov)