Why are chicken leg prices near a 5-year low?

The short answer

• Retail chicken leg prices rebounded to $1.74 per pound in September 2026 as late-summer feed grain rallies and strong protein substitution demand reversed a multi-year downward trend fueled by expanding broiler output and low feed costs. [1] [2] [3]

What's driving the price

Political, regulatory and trade factors

• Avian influenza trade restrictions on dark meat exports (Jan 2024 to Aug 2026), USDA FAS: Foreign trade embargos and disease-related import limits tied to sporadic highly pathogenic avian influenza detections constrained shipments abroad, trapping bulk leg quarters—which make up over 96 percent of U.S. broiler exports—in domestic supply channels. [pushed prices down] [7] [8]
• Stronger Caribbean export demand and trade clearances (Aug 2026 to Sep 2026), USDA: Upward revisions to USDA broiler export projections, driven by stronger shipments to Caribbean buyers, helped absorb domestic leg quarter inventories and supported wholesale dark-meat pricing. [pushed prices up] [11]

Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy

• Plunge in feed grain costs (Oct 2023 to Aug 2026): Feed accounts for 60 to 70 percent of live broiler production expenses, and a multi-year decline in corn and soybean meal prices through early 2026 lowered integrator raising costs and encouraged production growth. [pushed prices down] [1] [2] [4]
• Record expansion of domestic broiler meat output (Oct 2023 to Aug 2026): U.S. broiler meat production steadily expanded to an estimated 49.7 billion pounds by 2026 as hatcheries lifted chick placements and slaughter volumes grew, generating surplus dark meat supplies that lowered leg prices to a cyclical low of $1.67. [pushed prices down] [3] [5] [6]
• Summer drought and grain price rally (Aug 2026 to Sep 2026): Severe drought across the central United States late in the growing season trimmed harvest yields and triggered a 10 percent jump in corn prices, quickly escalating poultry feed expenses heading into autumn. [pushed prices up] [1] [9]

Retail, brand and seasonal factors

• Consumer substitution away from high-priced beef (Aug 2026 to Sep 2026): With the national cattle herd shrinking to 86.2 million head and keeping retail beef prices elevated, budget-focused grocery shoppers increased purchases of economical bone-in dark chicken cuts. [pushed prices up] [2] [7] [10]

Supply chain right now

• Raw materials & farming (moderate): Corn and soybean meal costs are facing upward pressure from central U.S. drought conditions while broiler chick placements remain one to two percent above year-ago levels. [1] [5]
• Processing & manufacturing (stable): Processing plants maintain steady slaughter throughput with higher average carcass weights sustaining large aggregate meat volumes. [3] [6]
• Logistics & freight (stable): Refrigerated transport and cold storage inventories are operating smoothly with adequate domestic freight capacity for poultry parts. [7] [8]
• Retail & distribution (moderate): Supermarkets are passing along modest wholesale firming in dark meat while actively promoting chicken legs to capture consumers trading down from expensive beef. [2] [7] [9]

Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.

Chicken legs prices, last 12 months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000706212.

Sources

1. wattagnet.com (wattagnet.com)
2. usda.gov (usda.gov)
3. nationalhogfarmer.com (nationalhogfarmer.com)
4. Poultry Meal Price Index 2026: Feedstock Cost Impact (feedingredientsasia.com)
5. Broilers see continued push from demand expectations (brownfieldagnews.com)
6. USDA forecast for broiler production raised for 2026 (thepoultrysite.com)
7. Chick-News.com - Share an Article (chick-news.com)
8. Statistics for the Poultry Industry by Simon M. Shane (chick-news.com)
9. aviagen.com (aviagen.com)
10. YEAREND: Poultry Farmers Continue to Battle Avian Flu in 2025, aMPV in Turkeys (aaes.uada.edu)
11. USDA raises poultry and egg production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 - High Plains Journal (hpj.com)

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