Why are chicken breast prices holding steady?

The short answer

• Retail boneless chicken breast prices sit at $4.20 per pound because record-high feed and energy expenses that peaked prices in 2022 gave way to expanded broiler production, while elevated beef prices keep retail chicken demand persistently strong. [1] [2] [3]
• Steady U.S. broiler slaughter numbers and lower feed grain costs have offset recurring avian influenza biosecurity expenses, locking retail prices within a narrow range around their five-year average over the past three years. [1] [4] [5]

What's driving the price

Political, regulatory and trade factors

• Avian flu trade embargos diverting exports home (Aug 2022 to May 2026), General Administration of Customs of China: China barred raw chicken shipments from up to 44 U.S. states over bird flu detections, driving U.S. chicken exports to China down from 622,000 metric tons in 2022 to 93,978 metric tons in 2025 and leaving more domestic supply in the U.S. market. [pushed prices down] [9] [10]

Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy

• Feed and fuel shock following the Ukraine invasion (Oct 2021 to Sep 2022): Surging global costs for corn, soybean meal, and diesel fuel drove up production costs across broiler farms, lifting retail chicken breast prices from a low of $3.59 to an all-time high of $4.75 in September 2022. [pushed prices up] [2] [3] [6]
• Plentiful feed grain harvests and cheaper feeds (Oct 2022 to Dec 2024): Recovering domestic corn yields and increased soybean crushing reduced ration expenses for broiler growers after 2022 highs, lowering wholesale cost pressures and stabilizing retail chicken prices. [pushed prices down] [4] [7]
• Expansion of U.S. broiler meat production (Jan 2024 to Sep 2026): Commercial broiler output expanded from 46.5 billion pounds in 2024 to 47.5 billion pounds in 2025 and over 47.6 billion pounds in 2026, creating abundant meat supplies that curbed retail price increases. [pushed prices down] [1]
• Biosecurity costs and breeder flock losses from avian flu (Feb 2022 to Sep 2026): The nationwide outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza infected over 90 million commercial birds by 2024 and maintained biosecurity expenses for poultry growers, setting a higher cost floor despite lower direct broiler bird mortality. [pushed prices up] [1] [8]

Retail, brand and seasonal factors

• Consumer substitution toward poultry amid high beef costs (Jan 2023 to Sep 2026): Prolonged contraction in the U.S. cattle herd pushed beef prices higher, leading budget-conscious households to switch to chicken breast as an affordable core protein and maintaining strong grocery sales. [pushed prices up] [1] [4]

Supply chain right now

• Raw materials & farming (stable): Lower corn and soybean meal prices have contained feed costs, supporting steady grow-out operations despite routine biosecurity measures against avian flu. [1] [4]
• Processing & manufacturing (stable): Broiler slaughter runs and plant throughput remain elevated, maintaining abundant ready-to-cook meat volumes that satisfy steady consumer demand. [5]
• Logistics & freight (moderate): Cold storage and refrigerated transportation encounter persistent operating expenses from diesel fuel fluctuations, keeping wholesale distribution costs above pre-2022 baselines. [11]
• Retail & distribution (stable): Grocery retailers price boneless chicken breast at $4.20 per pound to balance competitive protein value against sustained consumer willingness to pay. [1] [12]

Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.

Chicken breast prices, last 12 months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU0000FF1101.

Sources

1. Chicken prices could see change due to fertility, bird flu - Texas Farm Bureau (texasfarmbureau.org)
2. United States - Average Price: Chicken Breast, Boneless (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)
3. National Chicken Council | Consumers rely on chicken even as inflation affects prices (nationalchickencouncil.org)
4. usda.gov (usda.gov)
5. USDA Raises 2026 Broiler Production Forecast as Poultry Demand Stays Strong (poultryproducer.com)
6. Retail food price inflation in 2022 surpassed 2021 rates in most categories | Economic Research Service (ers.usda.gov)
7. Retail food price inflation subsided across most categories in 2024 | Economic Research Service (ers.usda.gov)
8. Checking your browser - reCAPTCHA (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
9. Congress Urges USTR to Press China Over U.S. Chicken Restrictions (poultryproducer.com)
10. wattagnet.com (wattagnet.com)
11. fastcompany.com (fastcompany.com)
12. tradersunion.com (tradersunion.com)

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