Why are baby food and formula prices holding steady?
Baby food & formula: −1.0% in the 12 months to September 2026 (U.S. Consumer Price Index), versus +3.7% for prices overall. 1-month −1.0%, 3-month −1.7%, 5-year +24.9%.
Inflation check: Falling while prices rise. −1.0% in a year, versus +3.7% for prices overall.
The short answer
- Baby food and formula prices declined 1.0 percent over the past 12 months as restored manufacturing capacity, normalized supply chains, and retailer promotional discounting stabilized grocery shelves. [1] [2]
- The category's 24.9 percent increase over the past five years reflects massive production shutdowns and severe shortage-driven spikes during 2022 and 2023 that permanently raised the price baseline. [1] [3]
What's driving the price
Political, regulatory and trade factors
- National supply resiliency and market entry initiatives (Jan 2025 to Sep 2026), Food and Drug Administration: The FDA published its Long-Term National Strategy to Increase the Resiliency of the U.S. Infant Formula Market in January 2025 and launched Operation Stork Speed in March 2025 to facilitate new entrants and expand supply avenues. [pushed prices down] [4] [5]
- Scrutiny of state WIC contracts and supplier concentration (Mar 2024 to Sep 2026), Federal Trade Commission: A March 2024 FTC report examined how single-supplier WIC contracts concentrated market share among a few dominant firms and impacted non-WIC consumer prices, heightening competitive scrutiny across retail channels. [pushed prices down] [6] [7] [8]
Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy
- Domestic plant shutdowns and inventory shortfalls (Oct 2021 to Sep 2023): Nationwide infant formula shortages triggered by product recalls and plant shutdowns depleted retail inventory, causing sharp double-digit price increases across infant nutrition products. [pushed prices up] [1] [3]
- Stabilization of dairy and agricultural input costs (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026): Farm-level milk costs and feed grain prices flattened after earlier price spikes, reducing raw ingredient cost pressures for formula manufacturers. [pushed prices down] [9]
Retail, brand and seasonal factors
- Grocery promotional pricing and private-label growth (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026): Retailers expanded store-brand offerings and increased promotional discounting on infant purees and formula to retain shoppers facing cumulative grocery inflation. [pushed prices down] [2] [10]
Supply chain right now
- Dairy and agricultural raw inputs (stable): Farm milk production and core agricultural ingredient costs have leveled off with fewer volatile price shocks. [9]
- Specialized processing and safety testing (moderate): Manufacturers face rigorous batch testing and ongoing FDA compliance monitoring that preserve high structural overhead. [4] [11]
- Packaging and freight logistics (stable): Container materials, shipping containers, and nationwide trucking routes are operating with steady lead times and normalized freight rates. [12]
- Grocery retail and institutional distribution (stable): Supermarket shelves maintain consistent inventory supported by stable state WIC allotments and competitive brand promotions. [2] [6]
Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.
Baby food & formula prices, last 12 months
| Month | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | −1.0% |
| August 2026 | +1.3% |
| July 2026 | +1.8% |
| June 2026 | −0.1% |
| May 2026 | −0.9% |
| April 2026 | −2.3% |
| March 2026 | −0.3% |
| February 2026 | −1.0% |
| January 2026 | −1.0% |
| December 2025 | +0.8% |
| November 2025 | +1.0% |
| September 2025 | +0.6% |
| August 2025 | +0.5% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), series CUUR0000SEFT05.
Sources
- Baby Food and Formula Inflation by Year, 1997–2026: CPI Calculator (in2013dollars.com)
- Consumer Price Index News Release - 2025 M12 Results (bls.gov)
- ftc.gov (ftc.gov)
- Operation Stork Speed (fda.gov)
- FDA Publishes Long-Term National Strategy to Increase the Resiliency of the U.S. Infant Formula Market (cov.com)
- Infant Formula Supply Chain Was Built to Break, FTC Report Reveals — Food & Power (foodandpower.net)
- FTC says WIC may make infant formula market 'more fragile' (foodfix.co)
- cato.org (cato.org)
- Economic Review of Milk Costs in 2024 and Projections for 2025 and 2026 - farmdoc daily (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu)
- Baby Food and Infant Formula Market Size Report, 2026-2035 (snsinsider.com)
- FDA Calls on Infant Formula Industry to Better Safeguard Against Conta (fda.gov)
- Information for Infant Formula Manufacturers and Retailers (fda.gov)