Why are premium gas prices up 28% from a year ago?
Premium gasoline: $5.43 per gallon, U.S. average price in September 2026. 1-month +5.7%, 3-month +5.4%, 1-year +28.2%. 5-year range $3.86 to $5.77, average $4.49.
Price check: Higher than usual. +21.0% versus its 5-year average, +28.2% versus a year ago.
The short answer
- Premium gasoline prices reached $5.43 per gallon following severe global crude oil supply disruptions caused by conflict and shipping blockades in the Persian Gulf. [1] [2]
- Prices remain heavily elevated because ongoing tanker transit risks and depleted emergency stockpiles have countered the temporary relief provided by earlier government crude releases. [3] [4]
What's driving the price
Political, regulatory and trade factors
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve emergency crude releases (May 2026 to Jul 2026), U.S. Department of Energy: The U.S. Department of Energy deployed emergency drawdowns of up to 1.2 million barrels per day, pulling Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories down to 284 million barrels to offset import disruptions and curb runaway pump prices. [pushed prices down] [3]
Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy
- Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade (Jan 2026 to May 2026): Military conflict involving Iran that began in late February 2026 constricted vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a waterway that handles roughly 20 percent of global oil supply and creating an acute upward shock in crude feedstock costs. [pushed prices up] [2] [4]
- Renewed shipping strikes and depleted fuel stockpiles (Jul 2026 to Sep 2026): Fresh drone and missile attacks on regional shipping and Saudi Aramco facilities reignited supply alarms, as the International Energy Agency reported global inventories sank 509 million barrels below pre-war levels and the American Petroleum Institute tracked an 11.1-million-barrel domestic inventory draw. [pushed prices up] [4]
- Global refining additions and demand moderation (Apr 2024 to Jan 2026): U.S. operable refining capacity expanded to 18.31 million barrels per day alongside major new Middle Eastern processing plants, which expanded fuel availability, narrowed refinery crack spreads, and lowered prices amid softer fuel consumption. [pushed prices down] [5]
Retail, brand and seasonal factors
- Refinery spring turnarounds and summer-blend environmental transitions (Jan 2024 to Apr 2024): Refiners took units offline for seasonal maintenance and transitioned output to summer-blend fuel, which requires replacing inexpensive butane with expensive high-octane blendstocks to meet Environmental Protection Agency vapor pressure rules. [pushed prices up] [6] [7]
- Autumn driving drop and winter fuel reformulation (Sep 2023 to Jan 2024): Retail prices declined as post-Labor Day driving demand subsided and fuel suppliers transitioned back to winter-grade blends that permit the use of lower-cost, high-volatility butane. [pushed prices down] [6] [7] [8]
Supply chain right now
- Raw materials & farming (critical): Crude oil supply is severely constrained as geopolitical hostilities and tanker threats in the Persian Gulf choke off global flows and draw down commercial stocks. [2] [4]
- Processing & manufacturing (critical): Refineries are contending with high raw crude costs and tight supplies of the aromatic and alkylate blendstocks required to produce premium octane ratings. [9] [10]
- Logistics & freight (critical): Marine transport through key Middle Eastern straits remains restricted due to physical strikes on commercial vessels and surging maritime insurance rates. [4]
- Retail & distribution (moderate): Service stations are passing escalated wholesale rack prices to motorists while navigating historically wide price premiums between regular and premium fuel grades. [9]
Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.
Premium gasoline prices, last 12 months
| Month | Price per gallon |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | $5.43 |
| August 2026 | $5.13 |
| July 2026 | $5.03 |
| June 2026 | $5.15 |
| May 2026 | $5.55 |
| April 2026 | $5.19 |
| March 2026 | $4.76 |
| February 2026 | $3.98 |
| January 2026 | $3.86 |
| December 2025 | $3.96 |
| November 2025 | $4.14 |
| October 2025 | $4.16 |
| September 2025 | $4.23 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU000074716.
Sources
- Average Gas Prices by State and Year | SoFi (sofi.com)
- Explainer: Why are gas prices so high right now? (hks.harvard.edu)
- Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil (dallasfed.org)
- seekingalpha.com (seekingalpha.com)
- EIA expects average U.S. gasoline and diesel prices to decrease in 2024 and 2025 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (eia.gov)
- Seasonal Gas Prices Explained (convenience.org)
- Why Are Gasoline Prices Higher in the Summer? (spragueenergy.com)
- Crude Oil Increase Doesn't Impact Gas Prices, Yet | News Radio 1190 KEX (1190kex.iheart.com)
- Factors affecting gasoline prices - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (eia.gov)
- spglobal.com (spglobal.com)