Why are diesel prices up 70% from a year ago?

The short answer

• A military conflict in the Middle East beginning on February 28, 2026, restricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, shutting in an estimated 4.5 million barrels per day of regional oil flows and driving Brent crude past $100 per barrel while pushing diesel crack spreads to record highs. [1] [2] [3] [4]
• A resumption of strikes on July 7, 2026, alongside attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Russian export hubs, pushed Brent crude to an average of $114 per barrel in September, while U.S. distillate stockpiles fell between 14% and 41% below five-year seasonal averages. [1] [2] [5] [6]
• Distillate fuel consumption remained significantly weak across 2024 due to an extended freight downturn, while record U.S. crude production of 13.5 million barrels per day and growing global refinery capacity depressed crack spreads and allowed diesel prices to decline toward $3.52. [3] [7] [8]

What's driving the price

Political, regulatory and trade factors

• Jones Act Maritime Shipping Waivers (May 2026 to Sep 2026), Federal Government: The federal government issued a Jones Act waiver starting March 17, 2026, and extended it through November 15 to ease fuel deliveries between U.S. ports, but premium prices in Europe and Latin America continued to pull Gulf Coast diesel into exports rather than domestic East Coast terminals. [neutral] [6]

Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy

• Strait of Hormuz Shipping Crisis and Crude Oil Shock (Dec 2024 to May 2026): A military conflict in the Middle East beginning on February 28, 2026, restricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, shutting in an estimated 4.5 million barrels per day of regional oil flows and driving Brent crude past $100 per barrel while pushing diesel crack spreads to record highs. [pushed prices up] [1] [2] [3] [4]
• Renewed Infrastructure Strikes and Distillate Depletion (Jul 2026 to Sep 2026): A resumption of strikes on July 7, 2026, alongside attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Russian export hubs, pushed Brent crude to an average of $114 per barrel in September, while U.S. distillate stockpiles fell between 14% and 41% below five-year seasonal averages. [pushed prices up] [1] [2] [5] [6]
• Freight Slump and High Crude Output (Sep 2023 to Dec 2024): Distillate fuel consumption remained significantly weak across 2024 due to an extended freight downturn, while record U.S. crude production of 13.5 million barrels per day and growing global refinery capacity depressed crack spreads and allowed diesel prices to decline toward $3.52. [pushed prices down] [3] [7] [8]
• Shaky Ceasefire and Maritime Reopening (May 2026 to Jul 2026): Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered following a June 17 Memorandum of Understanding, which pulled front-month Brent futures down to $72 per barrel on July 1 and provided temporary relief to wholesale fuel markets. [pushed prices down] [1]
• Russian Refinery Outages and Export Restrictions (Dec 2024 to Sep 2026): Drone strikes knocked out an estimated 40% to 50% of Russian refining capacity, and the Russian government banned diesel exports through October 2026, compelling European buyers to import alternative supplies and drawing U.S. Gulf Coast distillates into export markets. [pushed prices up] [7] [9] [10] [11]

Supply chain right now

• Raw materials & farming (critical): Brent crude reached an average of $114 per barrel in September 2026 due to extensive Middle East shut-ins, sharply elevating operating costs for agricultural equipment during the fall harvest. [2] [12] [13]
• Processing & manufacturing (critical): Distillate crack spreads reached record levels of up to $100 per barrel as U.S. refiners ran at roughly 98% utilization but could not compensate for extensive refinery outages abroad. [4] [12]
• Logistics & freight (critical): Marine chokepoints remain constricted in the Persian Gulf, and commercial trucking fleets face fuel expenses that have risen over 60% since early 2026. [3] [4]
• Retail & distribution (moderate): According to the Energy Information Administration, retail and distribution margins have been compressed because wholesale spot prices surged faster than pump prices could adjust. [14]

Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.

Diesel prices, last 12 months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Price Data, series APU000074717.

Sources

1. Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (eia.gov)
2. EIA Press Release (10/06/2026): EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year (eia.gov)
3. The 2026 Diesel Price Outlook: What Supply Chain Data Predicts for Fleet Budgets (fleetrabbit.com)
4. Fuel cost relief unlikely for some time (landline.media)
5. Elevated crack spreads and crude oil prices contribute to higher prices at the pump - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (eia.gov)
6. Why Diesel Prices Are So High (agricultural.substack.com)
7. Low Tanks, High Margins: Why Product Cracks Are at Records, and How Long They Are Likely to Last (stillwaterassociates.com)
8. Energy Indicators, December 2024 (dallasfed.org)
9. Crack spread chart: the 3-2-1 averaged $68.23 in September 2026, the highest monthly value since June 2006; diesel crack $106.51 (EIA data, own calculation) (globaloilshock.com)
10. US-Russia Diesel Deal 2026 (sphericalinsights.com)
11. Diesel: all indicators turning red (iru.org)
12. Market Minute: The energy shock has miles to go (realeconomy.rsmus.com)
13. Fuel Costs are Crushing Family Farmers. It’s Time for Serious Solutions - National Farmers Union (nfu.org)
14. IEA Says the Diesel Squeeze Lasts Well Into 2027. Futures Imply About $6 Diesel Into January - Energy News Beat (energynewsbeat.co)

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