Why are used car prices down 1.5% from a year ago?
Used cars & trucks: −1.5% in the 12 months to September 2026 (U.S. Consumer Price Index), versus +3.7% for prices overall. 1-month −0.1%, 3-month +0.6%, 5-year −3.1%.
Inflation check: Falling while prices rise. −1.5% in a year, versus +3.7% for prices overall.
The short answer
- Used car and truck prices fell 1.5% over the 12 months to September 2026 as elevated auto loan interest rates and rising dealer inventory pushed down retail prices, contrasting with overall inflation of 3.7%. [1] [2] [3]
- Over the five-year period, prices are down 3.1% after the resolution of pandemic-era vehicle production shortages normalized supply and unwound historic pricing peaks from late 2021. [4] [5] [6]
What's driving the price
Political, regulatory and trade factors
- Federal Reserve monetary tightening and borrowing costs (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026), Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve maintained elevated interest rates, including a quarter-point rate hike on September 16, 2026, which added to consumer auto financing costs and dampened vehicle purchasing power across dealership showrooms. [pushed prices down] [1] [2]
Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy
- Recovery of new vehicle manufacturing and trade-in supply (Oct 2021 to Sep 2026): Automakers restored vehicle production after severe microchip and parts shortages peaked in late 2021, restoring dealer inventories and steadying the flow of pre-owned trade-in supply. [pushed prices down] [4] [5] [6] [7]
- Accelerated depreciation at wholesale dealer auctions (Jul 2026 to Sep 2026): The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index dropped 1.1% month over month in September 2026 to 206.2, marking its third straight monthly decline as wholesale supply drifted up to 27.8 days. [pushed prices down] [1] [4]
- Rebound of late-model off-lease returns (Jan 2025 to Sep 2026): Research from Carfax and J.D. Power showed a steady increase in three-year-old off-lease vehicles entering dealer lots following the leasing slump of 2021 and 2022, expanding available used stock. [pushed prices down] [6]
Retail, brand and seasonal factors
- Dealership floor-plan holding costs (Jan 2026 to Sep 2026): Elevated commercial borrowing rates increased the financing cost of holding vehicles on retail lots, driving franchised and independent dealers to discount aging inventory to expedite sales. [pushed prices down] [3]
- Elevated demand for fuel-efficient compact vehicles (Jun 2026 to Sep 2026): Rising late-summer fuel and diesel prices drove stronger buyer interest into compact cars and electric vehicles, moderating overall used-vehicle price decreases as trucks and large sport utility vehicles depreciated faster. [pushed prices up] [1] [4]
Supply chain right now
- Wholesale dealer auctions (moderate): Wholesale supply reached 27.8 days in September 2026 as the Manheim index fell 1.1% month over month. [1] [4]
- Dealership floor-plan financing (critical): High commercial borrowing rates are raising the cost of carrying inventory and forcing price cuts on aging stock. [3]
- Vehicle reconditioning and servicing (stable): Replacement parts availability and labor pipelines have stabilized across automotive repair operations following earlier supply chain shortages. [8]
- Consumer retail financing (critical): Multi-decade high auto loan borrowing rates continue to erode affordability and cap the monthly purchase budgets of car shoppers. [2] [5]
Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.
Used cars & trucks prices, last 12 months
| Month | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | −1.5% |
| August 2026 | −2.3% |
| July 2026 | −1.9% |
| June 2026 | −1.8% |
| May 2026 | −2.0% |
| April 2026 | −2.7% |
| March 2026 | −3.2% |
| February 2026 | −3.2% |
| January 2026 | −2.0% |
| December 2025 | +1.6% |
| November 2025 | +3.6% |
| October 2025 | +4.6% |
| September 2025 | +5.1% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), series CUUR0000SETA02.
Sources
- Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: Mid-September 2026 Trends - Cox Automotive Inc. (coxautoinc.com)
- Interest Rates Further Squeeze Auto Consumers (fi-magazine.com)
- youtube.com (youtube.com)
- United States Used Car Prices MoM (tradingeconomics.com)
- dealers.cargurus.com (dealers.cargurus.com)
- Used-car prices finish 2025 ahead of prior year, but greater affordability in store (autoremarketing.com)
- Will Used Car Prices Drop in 2025? | Lomira Auto (lomiraauto.com)
- Used Car Price Trends for 2025: What Buyers & Sellers Need To Know (hawthorneautosquare.com)