Why are paper towel and toilet paper prices down 2.2% from a year ago?

The short answer

• U.S. household paper product prices fell 2.2% over the 12 months to September 2026 because softening global wood pulp commodity prices, expanding domestic mill capacity, and heavy retail promotional discounting lowered shelf prices even as all-items inflation climbed 3.7%. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
• Despite the past year of price decreases, category prices remain 22.2% higher than five years ago due to a historic run-up in raw pulp, energy, and transportation costs that peaked between 2021 and 2023. [2] [7] [8]

What's driving the price

Political, regulatory and trade factors

• Import tariffs on Canadian softwood kraft pulp (Aug 2026 to Sep 2026), Executive Office of the President: On August 22, 2026, the federal government imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian imports including Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp, a raw fiber blend comprising 15% to 30% of bath tissue and 50% to 65% of kitchen paper towels. [pushed prices up] [9] [10]

Macro factors: supply, weather, disease, energy

• Easing global wood pulp commodity costs (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026): The U.S. Producer Price Index for woodpulp fell 3.5% year over year by September 2026, driven by high port inventories and softening industrial demand in China that loosened international pulp supplies for tissue mills. [pushed prices down] [1]
• Domestic tissue manufacturing capacity expansions (Jan 2024 to Sep 2026): Finished goods supply expanded following major capital projects, including Kimberly-Clark's $2 billion North American manufacturing plan and Sofidel's $1.7 billion U.S. capacity buildout, which increased factory output efficiency. [pushed prices down] [2] [3] [4]
• Post-pandemic pulp and industrial energy shock (Sep 2021 to Jan 2023): The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics wood pulp producer price index surged to an all-time peak of 268.9 in January 2023, while natural gas drying costs and shipping expenses spiked, permanently shifting baseline retail prices upward. [pushed prices up] [2] [7] [8]

Retail, brand and seasonal factors

• Retail trade promotions and store brand competition (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026): As consumers traded down to lower-priced private-label tissue, major brands and retailers expanded promotional multi-packs and rolled out online subscription discounts of 10% to 15% to maintain purchase volume. [pushed prices down] [5] [6]

Supply chain right now

• Raw pulp sourcing (moderate): Global market pulp prices softened over the past 12 months, though the August 2026 enactment of a 50% tariff on Canadian softwood imports has sharply raised input costs for non-integrated mills. [1] [3] [9]
• Tissue manufacturing and converting (stable): Production output is steady as recent investments in high-speed converting machinery and modernized plant infrastructure keep domestic factory operations efficient. [2] [3]
• Wholesale distribution and logistics (stable): Transportation lanes and warehouse capacity have remained balanced, holding domestic freight costs relatively flat compared to pandemic-era spikes. [2] [11]
• Retail sales and merchandising (moderate): Grocery chains and e-commerce platforms are actively offering bundle discounts and temporary price cuts to prevent consumer defections to lower-cost private labels. [5] [6]

Researched 2026-10-18 with Google Search. Every point links to its sources; unsourced claims were removed.

Toilet paper & paper towels prices, last 12 months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), series CUUR0000SEHN02.

Sources

1. Wood pulp price index - businessanalytiq (businessanalytiq.com)
2. businessresearchinsights.com (businessresearchinsights.com)
3. kenresearch.com (kenresearch.com)
4. Tissue Products Market (market.us)
5. tissueworldmagazine.com (tissueworldmagazine.com)
6. Toilet Paper Market Size, Growth & Outlook, Trends Report 2025 – 2031 (mordorintelligence.com)
7. United States - Producer Price Index by Commodity: Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Wood Pulp - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast 1926 Historical (tradingeconomics.com)
8. Household Paper Products Inflation by Year, 1997–2026: CPI Calculator (in2013dollars.com)
9. New Tariffs Could Make Toilet Paper More Expensive, Less Soft (cnr.ncsu.edu)
10. Please Don't Panic-Buy: The Latest Toilet Paper Squeeze Is About Tariffs (patch.com)
11. Private Label Toilet Paper Profit Margins: 2026 Guide to Landed Cost & ROI - Top Source Hygiene (topsourcehygiene.com)

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